Weekly Market Review - 06-07-2026

Jul 6
5 min read

This week, UK equities led the way as the FTSE 100 moved higher, while US markets delivered more modest gains and technology stocks edged slightly lower. Away from markets, England’s World Cup win offered a boost to national sentiment and consumer-facing sectors, while inflation, housing affordability and energy costs remained key themes for the UK economy. Oil prices softened as supply concerns eased, the ECB struck a more comfortable tone on inflation, and geopolitical tensions intensified following further Russian attacks on Ukraine.

Market Recap.

Equity markets delivered a mixed performance this week, with UK equities moving firmly higher while US markets saw more modest gains and technology stocks edged lower.

UK equities performed strongly, with the FTSE 100 ETF rising 1.88%, reflecting a firmer tone across large-cap stocks.

In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained 0.51%, while the S&P 500 ETF rose 0.54%, pointing to steady but more measured progress across broader US equities.

Technology stocks were slightly weaker, with the Nasdaq 100 ETF falling 0.16%, suggesting a pause in momentum across growth-oriented names.

News.

England’s dramatic World Cup win over Mexico has lifted national attention and could provide a short-term boost to parts of the UK economy.

The 3-2 victory secured England’s place in the quarter-finals, where they will face Norway on Saturday. Jude Bellingham scored twice, with Harry Kane adding a penalty, as England held on despite going down to 10 men.

Beyond the result itself, major sporting moments can support consumer-facing sectors, particularly pubs, restaurants, supermarkets, travel and retail. Early World Cup data has already pointed to stronger hospitality spending, with Visa cardholder spending in English hospitality venues reportedly up almost 15% during the group stage, including a 30% rise in pubs.

Inflation.

UK inflation has remained below 3.00% so far, helping to ease some pressure on mortgage pricing and the wider housing market. However, inflation risks have not disappeared.

The latest UK housing market update highlighted that utility bills are expected to rise by 13.50% following the energy price cap increase from 1 July, which could add around 0.70% to inflation later in the summer. This may keep the Bank of England cautious, particularly if energy costs and global uncertainty continue to feed into household bills.

The housing market has remained relatively resilient despite this backdrop. Rightmove reported that asking prices fell 0.60% in June, while Nationwide said annual house price growth slowed to 1.70% in May. Halifax reported annual growth of just 0.50%, while Zoopla said UK house price inflation edged up to 1.50%.

Central Banks.

ECB Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin said the central bank was “comfortable” with its base scenario for inflation, following comments at the Aix-en-Provence Economic Forum in France. His remarks suggest policymakers may be less inclined to make another immediate policy shift, although the ECB remains firmly data dependent.

At its June meeting, the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate to 2.40% and the marginal lending facility to 2.65%. The Bank’s latest projections put headline inflation at 3.00% in 2026, easing to 2.30% in 2027 and 2.00% in 2028.

While the ECB has said it is “well positioned” to navigate uncertainty, policymakers are still monitoring the impact of energy prices, underlying inflation and economic growth before committing to any future rate path.

Commodities.

Oil prices continued to soften as supply concerns eased, helped by recovering flows through the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of higher OPEC+ production from August.

WTI crude is trading around $68.50 per barrel, down around 2.10% from last week.

Brent crude also moved slightly lower, trading around $71.90 per barrel, compared with approximately $72.70 last week. This marks a decline of around $0.80 per barrel, or roughly 1.10%.

Precious metals moved higher over the week. Gold is trading around $4,160 per ounce, up from approximately $4,055 last week, a rise of around $105 per ounce, or roughly 2.60%. Silver is trading around $62.10 per ounce, compared with approximately $58.70 last week, an increase of around $3.40 per ounce, or roughly 5.80%.

ESG.

Lloyds Banking Group and Wildfarmed have launched a new Food & Nature Resilience Fund to help UK farmers adopt more sustainable farming practices.

The fund is designed to support the shift towards regenerative agriculture, including methods that improve soil health, biodiversity and water quality, while also reducing carbon emissions. Lloyds said the launch comes as research suggests ecosystem decline could reduce UK GDP by 12% over the next decade if nature degradation is not addressed.

The financial challenge for farmers is also a key focus. Lloyds and Wildfarmed said 92% of farmers cited financial constraints as the main barrier to moving towards regenerative agriculture. The fund aims to make the transition commercially viable without requiring farmers to take land out of food production.

Ben Makowiecki, Agriculture Sustainability Director at Lloyds Banking Group, said the fund could help create “a more reliable financial model for farmers”, while Wildfarmed co-founder Andy Cato said the partnership was a step towards rewarding farmers for delivering nature and resilience while continuing to grow food.

Geopolitics.

The war in Ukraine intensified again this week after Russia launched one of its largest recent aerial attacks on Kyiv and the wider region.

Ukrainian officials said at least 19 people were killed, including 13 in the capital, after Russia fired 68 missiles and 351 strike drones. Ukraine said it was able to intercept or suppress many cruise missiles and drones, but none of the 23 ballistic missiles fired at Kyiv were shot down, highlighting what officials described as a “serious shortage” of interceptor missiles.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has appealed for allies to provide stronger air defence support at this week’s NATO summit, warning that Russia will continue targeting residential areas while Patriot missiles remain in allied stockpiles.

Week Ahead.

United States

n the United States, the week begins on Monday 6 July with final S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Services PMI data for June, giving markets an update on services activity.

On Tuesday 7 July, attention turns to the US trade balance for May. The main focus comes on Wednesday 8 July, when the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its June FOMC meeting, with investors looking for further guidance on inflation, labour market conditions and the future path of interest rates.

On Thursday 9 July, weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due, alongside housing-related data. No major US economic releases are expected on Friday 10 July.

United Kingdom In the UK, the data calendar is lighter this week, with no major GDP, inflation or labour market releases scheduled.

The main update comes on Thursday 9 July, when the ONS publishes its latest Economic activity and social change in the UK real-time indicators report, providing a timely snapshot of consumer behaviour, business activity and wider economic conditions.

The next UK monthly GDP release, covering May, is due on Thursday 16 July.

Eurozone

Across the Eurozone, the focus will be on consumer activity, production data and inflation pressures.

On Monday 6 July, Eurostat publishes May retail trade figures and industrial producer price data, offering updates on household spending and pipeline inflation.

Later in the week, markets will monitor services production, services turnover and other industry-related releases for signs of economic momentum. Investors will also continue to assess recent ECB commentary and whether easing energy prices are feeding through into lower inflation expectations.

It is important to note that the geopolitical situation remains highly fluid, and developments are changing rapidly. As such, the outlook may shift quickly as new information emerges.