Weekly Market Review - 22-06-2026

Jun 22
5 min read

Updated: Jun 23

This week’s review highlights a mixed market backdrop, with UK equities under pressure while US markets continued to show resilience, led by technology stocks. Political uncertainty in the UK, steady but persistent inflation, softer commodity prices and ongoing US-Iran negotiations all remain key areas of focus for investors. Alongside this, ESG developments continue to point toward long-term investment in cleaner energy and low-carbon infrastructure, as governments look to balance growth, energy security and decarbonisation.

Market Recap.

Equity markets delivered a mixed performance this week, with UK equities moving lower while US markets advanced across the major indices.

UK equities came under pressure, with the FTSE 100 ETF falling 1.81%, reflecting a weaker tone across large-cap stocks.

In the United States, markets were more positive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF rose 0.88%, while the S&P 500 ETF gained 0.69%, pointing to steady resilience across broader US equities.

Technology stocks also moved higher, with the Nasdaq 100 ETF rising 1.13%, outperforming the wider market as growth-oriented names regained momentum.

News.

The obvious news this week is Sir Keir Starmer announcing that he will step down as prime minister and Labour leader, triggering a fresh leadership contest and adding a new layer of uncertainty to UK politics.

Starmer said he would remain in post until the contest is complete, with nominations expected to open on 9 July and close before the summer parliamentary recess on 16 July. If the contest is contested, a new Labour leader is expected to be in place by September.

Andy Burnham has confirmed he will stand for the Labour leadership following his victory in the Makerfield by-election, while Wes Streeting has said he will not run and has instead backed Burnham. This has increased speculation that Burnham could have a relatively clear path to the leadership, with some suggestions he could enter Downing Street within weeks if no major rival emerges.

For markets, the immediate focus will be whether the leadership transition changes the government’s economic direction. Investors will be watching closely for signals on taxation, public spending, housing, infrastructure and the UK’s relationship with business, particularly if Burnham moves quickly to set out a new policy agenda.

Inflation.

UK inflation held steady in May, with the Consumer Price Index remaining at 2.80%, below expectations for a rise to around 3.00%.

Higher transport costs, including air fares, vehicle taxes and petrol prices, added upward pressure as the Iran conflict continued to affect fuel prices.

However, this was offset by slower food price inflation, which eased to 2.20%, its lowest level since December 2024.

The softer-than-expected reading is likely to support expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold, although policymakers remain alert to the risk of higher energy costs feeding through later in the year.

Central Banks.

The European Central Bank remains cautious, with another rate rise still possible despite the recent easing in oil prices.

ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch said a July hike remains on the table if inflation continues to broaden, particularly in services. He noted: “We had a not-so-nice reading of services inflation.”

Although the US-Iran deal has helped calm energy markets, policymakers are unlikely to assume the inflation risk has passed. Markets will now focus on upcoming inflation and wage data for signs of whether further tightening is needed.

Commodities.

Commodity markets moved lower this week, with oil prices falling again as hopes of progress in US-Iran talks eased some concerns around disruption to key energy supply routes.

WTI crude is trading around $75.70 per barrel, down from approximately $80.50 last week. This represents a fall of around $4.80 per barrel, or roughly 6.00%.

Brent crude also moved lower, trading around $79.00 per barrel, compared with approximately $83.60 last week. This marks a decline of around $4.60 per barrel, or roughly 5.50%.

The move reflects renewed optimism that diplomatic progress could reduce the risk of prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, although energy markets remain sensitive to any setback in negotiations.

Precious metals also softened over the week. Gold is trading around $4,190 per ounce, down from approximately $4,327 last week, a fall of around $137 per ounce, or roughly 3.20%. Silver is trading around $66.60 per ounce, compared with approximately $70.70 last week, a decline of around $4.10 per ounce, or roughly 5.80%.

ESG.

The UK government is launching a £219 million low carbon fuels fund to accelerate sustainable aviation fuel production and support the decarbonisation of air travel.

The fund will make £93 million available over the next two years for UK companies developing low carbon fuels, with applications due to open in mid-July. The focus will be on projects closest to production, helping move sustainable aviation fuel from development into commercial use.

The government estimates that low carbon fuel production could support up to 15,000 jobs and add as much as £5 billion to the UK economy by 2050. The funding also supports the UK’s wider target for 10% of jet fuel to come from sustainable sources by 2030.

Geopolitics.

Geopolitical attention remained on Iran this week, as the first round of US-Iran talks in Switzerland ended with both sides agreeing to continue negotiations.

Mediators said the talks produced a roadmap towards a potential deal within 60 days, although significant differences remain. Iran wants guarantees on sanctions relief and frozen assets, while the US is seeking commitments on regional security and nuclear issues.

The Strait of Hormuz also remains a key risk for markets. Conflicting claims over whether the route is open have kept energy traders on edge, given its importance for global oil and gas shipments.

While the diplomatic tone has improved, a lasting agreement is far from certain and markets are likely to remain sensitive to further developments.

Week Ahead.

United States

In the United States, attention this week will turn back to economic data following last week’s Federal Reserve decision. Flash S&P Global PMI data is due on Tuesday 23 June, providing an early read on business activity across manufacturing and services.

The key releases come on Thursday 25 June, when markets will watch the final estimate of Q1 GDP alongside Personal Income and Outlays for May, which includes the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders are also due the same day, making Thursday the main focus for US markets.

United Kingdom In the UK, the main update this week comes on Tuesday 23 June with flash S&P Global PMI data for manufacturing, services and the wider composite index. These figures will give an early indication of business momentum following last week’s inflation and Bank of England rate decision.

The ONS will also publish its latest Economic activity and social change in the UK real-time indicators update on Thursday 25 June. The larger Q1 GDP quarterly national accounts release is not due until Tuesday 30 June, so markets may already begin looking ahead to that for a fuller picture of UK growth.

Eurozone

Across the Eurozone, the focus will be on business activity and sentiment. Flash PMI data for France, Germany and the wider Eurozone is due on Tuesday 23 June, covering manufacturing, services and composite activity.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate survey follows on Wednesday 24 June, providing another important measure of business confidence in Europe’s largest economy

It is important to note that the geopolitical situation remains highly fluid, and developments are changing rapidly. As such, the outlook may shift quickly as new information emerges.