Weekly Market Review - 15-06-2026

Jun 16
5 min read

Markets moved cautiously this week, with UK equities outperforming while US indices softened as investors weighed easing energy concerns against renewed inflation pressure. A proposed US-Iran peace deal helped drive oil prices lower, but central banks remain cautious as higher energy costs continue to feed through into inflation. Meanwhile, ESG developments focused on the expanding reach of carbon regulation, with potential implications for UK exporters and supply chains.

Market Recap.

Equity markets saw only modest moves this week, with UK equities outperforming while US markets remained slightly softer overall.

UK equities strengthened, with the FTSE 100 ETF rising 0.96%, reflecting a more positive tone across large-cap stocks.

In the United States, performance was more subdued. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF edged higher by 0.27%, suggesting a small degree of resilience in blue-chip stocks.

Broader US equities slipped, with the S&P 500 ETF falling 0.47%, while technology stocks were little changed. The Nasdaq 100 ETF dipped slightly by 0.08%, indicating a pause in momentum rather than a sharp reversal.

News.

The US and Iran have agreed a framework deal to end the war, with the agreement expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and that the US naval blockade of Iran will end, helping ease fears of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

Oil and gas prices have already fallen following the announcement, although shipping firms remain cautious while details of the deal are still limited. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could help reduce pressure on fuel costs, supply chains and inflation, but markets are likely to remain alert until the agreement is formally signed and shipping routes return to normal.

Inflation.

US inflation moved higher in May, reaching its fastest pace in three years as rising energy prices continued to feed through to consumer costs.

Consumer inflation increased by 0.50% month-on-month in May, following a 0.60% rise in April, while annual inflation rose to 4.20%, according to the US Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics being was largely driven by energy prices.

Petrol prices have been a key source of pressure for households, rising 7.00% over the month and sitting more than 40.00% higher than a year earlier.

The latest figures have increased focus on the Federal Reserve, with markets expecting rates to remain on hold in the near term but becoming more alert to the possibility of further tightening if inflation remains elevated. The US-Iran peace deal and potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may help ease energy-related price pressures later in the year, but the timing and scale of that relief remains uncertain.

Central Banks.

European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel has warned that inflation pressures are unlikely to ease immediately, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.

Nagel said there would be “no immediate relief” from the energy-driven rise in inflation, as it could take months for oil supply to return to pre-war levels. His comments suggest the ECB is likely to remain cautious, with policymakers still focused on the risk that higher energy costs feed through into wider prices and inflation expectations.

The warning comes despite oil prices falling after the US-Iran framework deal was announced. While the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could reduce some pressure on global energy markets, Nagel’s comments highlight that central banks may be reluctant to shift policy too quickly until supply conditions normalise and the inflation outlook becomes clearer.

Commodities.

Commodity markets saw a sharp shift this week, with oil prices moving notably lower as concerns around key energy supply routes eased.

WTI crude is trading around $80.50 per barrel, down from approximately $94.50 last week (-14.80%).

Brent crude also moved lower, trading around $83.60 per barrel, compared with approximately $96.85 last week (-13.70%).

The fall in oil prices reflects renewed optimism that disruption to key energy supply routes may ease, reducing concerns over global supply constraints and helping to ease pressure on fuel and production costs.

Precious metals moved higher over the week, recovering from last week’s weakness. Gold is trading around $4,327 per ounce, up approximately 0.90%. Silver is trading around $70.70 per ounce, gaining 5.50% for the week.

ESG.

The EU Council has backed plans to expand the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM, from mainly raw materials into selected finished goods that use carbon-intensive inputs.

CBAM has been fully operational since 1 January 2026 and currently applies a carbon price to imports from emissions-heavy sectors including iron and steel, cement, fertilisers, aluminium, electricity and hydrogen. The proposed expansion would bring more downstream products into scope, particularly goods that use materials such as steel and aluminium.

For UK companies exporting into the EU, the direction of travel is significant. Manufacturers, importers and supply-chain teams may face greater pressure to provide product-level emissions data, improve supplier traceability and strengthen customs documentation. This could increase compliance costs for firms selling into Europe, especially where carbon-intensive materials sit several steps back in the supply chain.

Geopolitics.

The war in Ukraine escalated again this week after Russia launched a major wave of drone and missile attacks across the country, killing at least 11 people and injuring more than 50.

The strikes also damaged the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra monastery, one of Ukraine’s most important religious and cultural landmarks. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian drones had “deliberately” targeted the area, while Ukraine’s security service said wreckage from a Russian Geran-2 drone had been found at the site. Russia denied responsibility, claiming a faulty US-made Patriot missile was likely to blame.

The attacks come as diplomatic tensions remain high. Zelenskyy said he had offered to meet Vladimir Putin at this week’s G7 summit in France, but Russia rejected the proposal. Meanwhile, the EU approved fresh sanctions targeting more than 80 individuals and entities linked to Russia’s military-industrial network, shadow fleet and hybrid operations against Europe.

Week Ahead.

United States

The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting will be the main focus in the US. The FOMC meets on 17–18 June, with its interest rate decision due on 18 June. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, but markets will watch for guidance on inflation, energy prices and the policy outlook.

Key data releases include Retail Sales on 17 June and Initial Jobless Claims on 18 June. US markets will be closed on 19 June for Juneteenth.

United Kingdom In the UK, attention will be on inflation and the Bank of England. May CPI and PPI data are released on 18 June, while the Bank of England announces its latest interest rate decision on 19 June. Markets expect rates to remain on hold at 4.25%, with investors focused on the vote split and policy commentary.

Eurozone

In the Eurozone, final May inflation figures are due on 18 June, while the ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released on 17 June. Markets will be watching whether easing energy prices and improving sentiment support the region’s economic outlook.

It is important to note that the geopolitical situation remains highly fluid, and developments are changing rapidly. As such, the outlook may shift quickly as new information emerges.