Weekly Market Review - 29-06-2026

Jun 29
5 min read

This week, markets reflected a more cautious tone as investors balanced stronger blue-chip performance against renewed pressure on broader US equities and technology stocks. Political developments in the UK, easing inflation expectations in the Eurozone and falling commodity prices all shaped sentiment, while central banks continued to warn that stretched valuations, particularly around AI, could create risks if optimism begins to unwind.

Market Recap.

Equity markets delivered a mixed performance this week, with UK and US blue-chip stocks moving higher while broader US equities and technology names came under pressure.

UK equities advanced, with the FTSE 100 ETF rising 0.75%, reflecting a firmer tone across large-cap stocks.

In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF also moved higher, gaining 1.12% over the week and suggesting continued resilience across more traditional areas of the market.

However, broader US equities were weaker, with the S&P 500 ETF falling 0.84%. Technology stocks saw the sharpest decline, with the Nasdaq 100 ETF dropping 2.78%, highlighting a notable pullback in growth-oriented names.

News.

UK politics remained firmly in focus this week as Andy Burnham used his first major speech since launching his Labour leadership bid to set out a message of devolution, economic renewal and political change.

Burnham said Westminster is “broken” and argued that the UK needs a “circuit breaker”, with proposals including shifting more power out of central government, strengthening the role of devolved mayors and bringing what he called the “Greater Manchester way” into Westminster.

The speech also drew criticism from Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who warned of a potential “summer of chaos” if Burnham does not provide more detail on his policy positions before the parliamentary recess. She also questioned whether his plans for a “Number 10 North” were practical.

Inflation.

Eurozone consumers trimmed their short-term inflation expectations in May, offering some reassurance that price pressures may be starting to cool from recent highs.

The European Central Bank’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey showed that median inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 3.50% in May, down from 4.00% in April. However, longer-term expectations were unchanged, with three-year expectations holding at 2.90% and five-year expectations remaining at 2.40%.

The decline suggests consumers are becoming slightly less concerned about near-term price rises, helped by easing energy market pressures and reduced fears around disruption from the Middle East conflict. However, expectations remain above the ECB’s 2.00% inflation target, meaning policymakers are unlikely to declare victory too soon.

Central Banks.

Central bankers have warned that the global AI investment boom could become a growing financial stability risk if valuations begin to unwind.

The Bank for International Settlements, often described as the central bank for central banks, said AI investment has helped support global growth, with “animal spirits about AI” lifting stock valuations and keeping financial conditions favourable. However, it also warned that this optimism “may not last” if investment proves unsustainable or future productivity gains disappoint.

The BIS said intense competition for AI leadership could fuel overinvestment, increasing the risk of a “sharp reversal” if expected payoffs fail to materialise. It also cautioned that stretched valuations, high leverage and more opaque AI-related financing could amplify any market correction.

Commodities.

Commodity markets moved lower again this week, with oil prices continuing to fall as the risk premium linked to US-Iran tensions eased and markets became more confident that disruption around key energy supply routes may be avoided.

WTI crude is trading around $70.00 per barrel, down from approximately $75.70 last week. This represents a fall of around $5.70 per barrel, or roughly 7.50%.

Brent crude also moved lower, trading around $72.70 per barrel, compared with approximately $79.00 last week. This marks a decline of around $6.30 per barrel, or roughly 8.00%.

Precious metals also softened over the week. Gold is trading around $4,055 per ounce, down from approximately $4,190 last week, a fall of around $135 per ounce, or roughly 3.20%. Silver is trading around $58.70 per ounce, compared with approximately $66.60 last week, a decline of around $7.90 per ounce, or roughly 11.90%.

ESG.

The UK is set to tighten deforestation rules for companies using key commodities including coffee, cocoa, soy and palm oil, as the government moves to strengthen oversight of global supply chains.

Under the proposed rules, larger companies would be required to prove that these commodities have not been sourced from land illegally deforested under local laws. Businesses would also need to carry out due diligence, assess supply-chain risk and report on the steps taken to prevent deforestation-linked goods entering the UK market.

The measures are aimed at improving transparency across high-risk agricultural supply chains, where deforestation remains a major driver of biodiversity loss and emissions. For UK businesses, the rules could increase compliance requirements, particularly around supplier traceability, documentation and ESG reporting.

Geopolitics.

The 2026 World Cup continued to highlight the overlap between sport, politics and economics this week, as scrutiny grew around FIFA’s ticketing model, host-city costs and the wider North American trade backdrop.

Recent reporting suggests FIFA leadership pushed ahead with dynamic ticket pricing despite concerns from US-based staff, with the approach aimed at maximising revenue in a high-spending American sports market. While FIFA has pointed to strong attendance and lower-priced ticket allocations, the scale of pricing has drawn criticism from fans and consumer groups.

The issue matters beyond football because the tournament is taking place across the US, Canada and Mexico at a time when the three countries are also navigating trade tensions and upcoming USMCA renegotiations. For host cities, the question is whether tourism and hospitality spending can offset higher security, transport and infrastructure costs.

Week Ahead.

United States

In the United States, attention this week will centre on the labour market, business activity and consumer confidence. On Tuesday 30 June, markets will monitor JOLTS job openings and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, alongside housing market data including the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

On Wednesday 1 July, the ADP employment report and ISM Manufacturing PMI will provide further insight into hiring conditions and industrial momentum. The key release comes on Thursday 2 July, when the June non-farm payrolls report, unemployment rate and weekly Initial Jobless Claims are published. Factory Orders are also due the same day. US markets will be closed on Friday 3 July in observance of Independence Day.

United Kingdom In the UK, the main focus this week will be the final set of Q1 growth figures. On Tuesday 30 June, the ONS will publish the UK quarterly national accounts, including revised GDP data for January to March, alongside balance of payments, consumer trends and business investment figures.

Later in the week, markets will watch final S&P Global PMI data, with Manufacturing PMI due on Wednesday 1 July and Services and Composite PMI figures expected on Friday 3 July. These releases will provide a clearer view of business momentum following last week’s softer flash PMI readings and ongoing political uncertainty.

Eurozone

Across the Eurozone, inflation, business activity and central bank commentary will be the main focus. The ECB’s annual Sintra forum runs from Monday 29 June to Wednesday 1 July, with markets watching closely for signals on inflation, growth and the future path of interest rates.

Flash June inflation data is expected on Wednesday 1 July and will be closely watched for signs of whether easing energy prices are feeding through into lower price pressures. Final Manufacturing PMI data is also expected on Wednesday, followed by final Services and Composite PMI data on Friday 3 July. Eurozone unemployment figures are also due during the week, giving investors another update on the region’s economic resilience.

It is important to note that the geopolitical situation remains highly fluid, and developments are changing rapidly. As such, the outlook may shift quickly as new information emerges.