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Clever.

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Clever.

Weekly Market Review - 29-09-2025

  • Writer: Eloise Bell
    Eloise Bell
  • Sep 29
  • 3 min read

Equity and commodity markets closed the final week of September on a mixed note as investors weighed central bank signals, shifting inflation expectations, and intensifying geopolitical risks. UK equities outperformed on defensive strength, while U.S. indices diverged with weakness in technology shares. Gold reached fresh record highs as safe-haven demand surged, while oil prices fluctuated amid supply headlines. Against this backdrop, policymakers in both the UK and Eurozone emphasised caution, and upcoming economic data releases are set to shape sentiment into October.



Market Recap.


Equity markets delivered diverging performances last week. The FTSE 100 ETF rose 0.65%, leading global peers as UK equities benefited from strength in energy and defensive sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained 0.42%, reflecting resilience in industrials. The S&P 500 ETF ended flat (-0.01%), showing little overall movement despite midweek volatility. By contrast, the Nasdaq 100 ETF slipped 0.37%, under pressure from renewed weakness in large-cap technology names.

 


News.


UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves warned of “harder choices” ahead as she hinted at potential tax rises in the upcoming November Budget. Speaking at Labour’s annual party conference, she pledged to keep “taxes, inflation and interest rates as low as possible” but acknowledged that international events and long-term economic damage have constrained fiscal room. “The world has changed,” Reeves told the BBC, citing wars in Europe and the Middle East, new U.S. tariffs and higher global borrowing costs. Economists suggest tax increases or spending cuts may be required for the government to meet its borrowing rules.



Inflation. 


Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden expressed confidence that UK inflation will return to the 2 % target, pointing to signs of a cooling labour market and normalising wage growth. “We have seen the labour market continuing to loosen with wage growth normalising and I see that as supporting a continuation of the core disinflation process. And that anchors my view on the inflation outlook,” he said.



Central Banks.


ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane described the eurozone’s inflation outlook as “reasonably benign,” saying policymakers do not expect either a major upward or downward shock. “We don’t see either a significant upward shock or a downward shock coming through,” he noted, stressing that inflation is gradually converging toward target. Markets took the remarks as a signal the ECB is likely to keep policy steady while monitoring growth and currency dynamics. The stance contrasts with the U.S., where investors still anticipate further Fed rate cuts before year-end, underscoring diverging global policy expectations.



Commodities.


Gold surged to a new record above $3,700/oz last week as investors sought safety and responded to expectations of easier U.S. monetary policy. Prices remain near those highs, underscoring strong demand for precious metals. Oil prices also firmed, with Brent crude trading near $67/barrel and WTI at $63/barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions in both the Middle East and Europe. The combination of rising safe-haven demand and renewed energy market strain kept commodities in focus for global markets.



ESG.


The UK has signed contracts for its first commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, which aim to capture 1.2 million tonnes of CO₂ annually from cement and waste-to-energy plants while creating around 500 skilled jobs. Heidelberg Materials called the deal “a major milestone … not just for us, but for the industry as a whole.” These projects are part of a £9.4 billion UK commitment to scale carbon capture and support industrial decarbonisation.



Geopolitics.


Geopolitical tensions continued to drive safe-haven flows, pushing gold to fresh record highs. Analysts highlighted conflict in Ukraine and Gaza as key catalysts. “Tense geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Gaza are keeping the bid for safe havens strong,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote. The surge underlines how investors are positioning defensively amid heightened uncertainty, with geopolitical risk now a dominant market driver alongside monetary policy expectations.



Week Ahead.


United States: On Tuesday 30 September, the Conference Board releases consumer confidence data, followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index on Wednesday. Both will be closely watched for signs of near-term momentum.


United Kingdom: Friday 3 October brings the Nationwide House Price Index, offering further insight into the resilience of the housing market, alongside consumer credit data.


Eurozone: Flash HICP inflation figures for September will be finalised this week, while the ECB’s accounts from its latest meeting will shed light on policymakers’ internal debates around currency strength and easing risks.




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