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Weekly Market Review - 15-09-2025

  • Writer: Eloise Bell
    Eloise Bell
  • Sep 15
  • 4 min read

As markets enter the final stretch of Q3, investor attention has turned sharply to central bank decisions, inflation data, and the evolving economic outlook across major regions. This week saw broad equity gains, cautious optimism around rate cuts, and fresh warnings from retailers about rising costs ahead of the UK’s autumn Budget. Meanwhile, regulatory updates in Europe and geopolitical risks continue to shape sentiment, with sustainability reporting and cyber threats both in focus. Here's a breakdown of the key developments.



Market Recap.


In the UK, the FTSE 100 ETF rose by 0.64%, supported by strength in energy and consumer sectors. In the US, all major indices advanced. The Nasdaq 100 ETF climbed 0.82%, matching its performance from the previous week, while the S&P 500 ETF gained 1.09% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF added 0.79%.

 


News.


UK retailers have warned that upcoming autumn Budget measures could drive a fresh wave of food price inflation, as businesses face rising operational costs. Industry leaders, including the British Retail Consortium, have urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves to reconsider planned reforms to business rates and packaging regulations, which could add over £1.1 billion in costs to food and drink firms.

The Food and Drink Federation forecasts that food inflation could reach 5.70% by December, driven by higher National Insurance contributions, minimum wage increases, and new environmental levies. Retailers say these costs are already “rippling through to shelf-edge prices,” with staples like beef mince rising by over 30% since January.



Inflation. 


US inflation rose to 2.90% in August, the fastest pace this year, up from 2.70% in July. Price increases were driven by cars, furnishings, and food staples like tomatoes and beef. A 17% tariff on Mexican tomatoes contributed to a 4.50% price jump. Economist Atakan Bakiskan noted: “Trump’s inflationary policies… continue to erode consumers’ purchasing power.”

Despite the rise, the Fed is still expected to cut rates, though policymakers remain cautious. Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley added: “Inflation is a key subplot, but the labour market is still the main story.”



Central Banks.


European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers opted to keep interest rates unchanged last week, citing an uncertain economic outlook and mixed inflation signals. While headline inflation has eased, core inflation remains sticky, prompting officials to maintain flexibility. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos noted that “the battle against inflation is not yet won,” and several members stressed the need to keep rate options open in case price pressures resurface. The decision reflects growing caution amid weak eurozone growth and external risks such as trade tensions and energy volatility.



Commodities.


Gold surged to a new record of $3,641/oz, driven by rate-cut expectations and dollar weakness. Silver also climbed, reaching a 14-year high, while Brent crude rose to $66.46/bbl. The rally in precious metals reflects investor hedging amid macro uncertainty, while oil markets remain supported by constrained OPEC+ output.

 


ESG.


The EU Commission, in collaboration with EFRAG, has introduced major simplifications to the European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS). The revised framework reduces mandatory datapoints by 57% and total disclosures by 68%, significantly easing the reporting burden for companies. These changes aim to make sustainability reporting under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) more manageable, especially for SMEs, while maintaining alignment with the European Green Deal.



Geopolitics.


The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has warned that heightened geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive significant risks across EU financial markets. The first half of 2025 saw pronounced volatility, particularly in equities, bonds, and crypto-assets, as trade conflicts and cyber threats intensified. Investor sentiment has been further complicated by exuberance in crypto markets and the emergence of high-risk business models.

ESMA Chair Verena Ross stated, “We have recently seen strong volatility in most global markets, including for equities, bonds and crypto-assets. Whilst the situation has stabilised since March/April, global uncertainties remain. Any unexpected geopolitical developments could risk driving sudden market corrections.”

She also highlighted the growing threat of cyber and hybrid attacks, warning that these could lead to operational disruptions in financial markets. Retail investors, in particular, are vulnerable to misinformation and the gamification of trading, especially via social media platforms

 



Week Ahead.


United States: Markets will be closely watching the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday 17th September, where a rate cut is widely anticipated. This meeting could mark the beginning of a series of rate cuts, with futures markets pricing in two to three reductions before year-end.


United Kingdom: The spotlight will be on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday 18th September, which comes just one day after the release of UK inflation data for August. The August CPI data, due, is expected to show a rise to 3.90%, up from 3.80% in July. With wage inflation still elevated and the labour market softening, the Bank is likely to tread carefully.


Eurozone: A series of important data releases will shape the economic narrative across the bloc this week. On Tuesday 16th September, the Eurozone will publish Industrial Production figures for July, offering insight into manufacturing activity following a contraction in June. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, also due Tuesday, will reflect analysts’ six-month outlook on the region’s economic trajectory.

On Wednesday 17th September, attention will turn to the final inflation readings for August, including Harmonised CPI, Core CPI, and month-on-month inflation rates.




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