Weekly Market Review - 28-07-2025
- Anthony Walters
- Jul 27
- 4 min read
Updated: Jul 29
Welcome to Clever's Weekly Market Review, where we break down the key developments shaping global markets. From renewed transatlantic trade agreements and resilient equity performance to shifting inflation expectations and central bank policy signals, this week saw a blend of optimism and caution. We also spotlight significant ESG moves and evolving geopolitical dynamics, setting the stage for a pivotal week ahead in corporate earnings and monetary decisions.
Market Recap.
Markets edged higher as fresh trade agreements between major economies buoyed investor sentiment. The FTSE 100 ETF led the gains, rising 1.18% as it played “catch up” with global peers. The S&P 500 ETF followed closely, adding 1.16%.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF advanced 0.89%, and the Nasdaq 100 ETF posted a more modest gain of 0.60%.
News.
The United States and European Union have agreed a trade deal, ending a months-long standoff between two of the world's biggest economic partners. After make-or-break negotiations, the major economies agreed a US tariff on all EU goods of 15% and 0% for the US on certain products.
The President of the European Commission, Ursela Von der Leyen, hailed the deal, saying it would bring stability for both allies, who together account for almost a third of global trade.
Inflation.
Risks to the euro zone inflation outlook remain balanced as the changes since June broadly offset each other, European Central Bank board member Piero Cipollone said in a newspaper interview.
"We now see an additional appreciation of the euro and a slight increase in energy costs," he told Slovenian newspaper Delo in an interview published on Saturday. "The overall assessment therefore stays the same."
He added that trade tensions have increased but the global economy has so far been resilient. "Overall, it seems to me that the June assessment can be confirmed and that inflation expectations are balanced," Cipollone said.
Central Banks.
The European Central Bank is not in any hurry to lower borrowing costs again and it would take a major unexpected economic shift to make a case for action in September, Slovak policymaker Peter Kazimir has said.
"When it comes to incoming data, I don't expect anything significant to happen that would force my hand to act as soon as September," Kazimir said in a blog post. "It would take something like clear signs of unravelling in the labour market for me to act."
This assessment aligns with comments from ECB sources that the bar for a cut in September is high after the bank has already halved rates to 2% since June 2024.
Commodities.
Thermal coal futures rose by 3.55% last week, the highest in six months, as China aimed to combat oversupply in multiple industries. Beijing noted it will shutter mines that produce coal above their quotas in their latest effort to curb the oversupply of power feedstock.
US natural gas futures fell by 6.52% last week, the lowest since April 22, as weaker-than-expected summer heat and robust production kept downward pressure on prices throughout July. Weather forecasts pointed to less-intense heat across North America, reducing demand for cooling and thereby limiting gas consumption for power generation.
ESG.
Kimberly-Clark UK & Ireland, the manufacturer of brands including Andrex and Kleenex, has become the first major consumer products company in the UK to sign long-term offtake agreements for green hydrogen.
The company is partnering with Carlton Power and HYRO – the latter being a joint venture between Octopus Energy Generation and RES – to invest over £125 million into green hydrogen infrastructure at Kimberly-Clark’s UK manufacturing sites in Kent and Cumbria.
The use of green hydrogen, generated via electrolysis using renewable energy sources, will replace natural gas used for steam generation at the sites. The initiative is a key component in Kimberly-Clark’s strategy to reduce operational greenhouse gas emissions by over 80% in the UK by 2027 versus a 2015 baseline.
Geopolitics.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Chinese leader Xi Jinping that the bloc’s ties with his country “have reached an inflection point,” illustrating what’s at stake in their summit shadowed by tensions spanning trade to the war in Ukraine.
“As our cooperation has deepened, so have the imbalances,” von der Leyen said on Thursday, according to her prepared remarks. The head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, called on China “to use its influence on Russia to respect the United Nations Charter and to bring an end of its war of aggression against Ukraine.”
“Rebalancing our bilateral relation is essential,” von der Leyen said.
Week Ahead.
US: A key week for earnings, with results from Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, and Intel. In defence, watch Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Texas Instruments. These updates will be scrutinised for signs of resilience amid trade policy headwinds.
Europe: The ECB meets Thursday. After eight straight rate cuts, markets expect a pause, given inflation has now returned to the 2% target.
UK: ONS retail sales data is due, following a strong BRC print driven by warm weather and seasonal goods.
View this week's ESG in 5 for more updates here
Author.
Sources.
Market recap Data sourced from FE FundInfo & Koyfin. ETFs quoted: iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF, iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (quoted in Pounds Sterling).
News EU and US agree trade deal, with 15% tariffs for European exports to America, by Sarah Smith, BBC News, 27/07/2025
Inflation ECB's Cipollone says euro zone inflation risks balanced, newspaper reports, By Reuters, 26/07/2025
Central Banks ECB's Kazimir says big unexpected economic shift needed for September rate cut, By Yahoo Finance/Reuters, 28/07/2025
ESG Kimberly-Clark Invests Over $165 Million to Decarbonize Manufacturing with Green Hydrogen, by Emanuela Hawker, ESG Today, 25/07/25
Geopolitics Von der Leyen Says EU-China Ties Are at ‘Inflection Point’, By Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg News, 24/07/2025
Commodities Tradingeconomics and Koyfin, 28/07/2025
Week ahead Nathan Sweeney, Marlborough, 28/07/2025
