Weekly Market Review - 21-07-2025
- Anthony Walters
- Jul 21
- 4 min read
Updated: Jul 22
Markets showed mixed signals last week, as investor optimism clashed with rising inflation and geopolitical unease. Tech-heavy US indices saw gains on central bank reassurance, while UK inflation and European trade tensions tempered global confidence. With earnings season heating up and key central bank meetings on the horizon, this week is set to test the resilience of markets - and policy makers alike.
Market Recap.
Despite rising inflationary pressures, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (+1.12%) and the S&P 500 ETF (+0.65%) posted gains, buoyed by expectations that central banks remain poised to intervene if needed.
In contrast, the FTSE 100 ETF (-0.13%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (-0.09%) edged lower over the week, reflecting a more cautious investor sentiment in this corner of the global market.
News.
Earnings from JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo exceeded expectations, helped by a surge in investment banking fees. As of Friday, financials were forecast to post 8.6% earnings growth in Q2 – well above the 5.6% estimate for the broader S&P 500, according to FactSet.
Inflation.
Britain's annual rate of consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to its highest in over a year at 3.60% in June, official figures showed on Wednesday, slightly dampening expectations for further cuts in Bank of England interest rates.
British inflation has risen steadily since touching a three-year low of 1.7% last September, and in May the BoE forecast it would peak at 3.7% in September - almost twice the central bank's 2.00% target.
Central Banks.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stressed the importance of international cooperation to achieve finance stability, saying in a letter to G20 policymakers on Monday that uncertainty continued to weigh on global growth expectations. "Jurisdictions cannot achieve financial stability alone," Bailey said in the letter, addressed to G20 finance ministers and central bank governors. "It is vital that policy makers can act collectively in response to a global shock. We should not take this capability for granted, particularly against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and rising fragmentation risk," he added.
Commodities.
Heating oil futures gained 3.88% last week, reaching near one-month highs as warfare in the Middle East compounded tight supplies, amid solid demand. In the US, distillate stocks plunged by 4.1 million barrels in the week to June 20th, leaving inventories well below year-ago levels despite refiners operating at 94–95% of capacity.
ESG.
Energy giant bp announced today an agreement to sell its onshore wind business, bp Wind Energy, to power and energy infrastructure developer and operator LS Power, forming part of bp’s strategy to refocus on growing its oil and gas business. The agreement follows the launch of a new strategy announced by bp in February 2025, reallocating capital to increase oil and gas investment and reducing low carbon energy to less than 5% of the company’s capex allocation.
William Lin, bp EVP for Gas & Low Carbon Energy, said:
“We have been clear that while low carbon energy has a role to play in a simpler, more focused bp, we will continue to rationalize and optimise our portfolio to generate value. The onshore US wind business has great assets and fantastic people, but we have concluded we are no longer the best owners to take it forward.”
Geopolitics.
The European Union is exploring a broader set of possible countermeasures against the United States as prospects for an acceptable trade agreement with Washington fade, according to EU diplomats.
An increasing number of EU members, including Germany, are now considering using wide-ranging "anti-coercion" measures which would let the bloc target US services and other sectors in the absence of a deal, diplomats say.
Week Ahead.
US: A key week for earnings, with results from Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, and Intel. In defence, watch Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Texas Instruments. These updates will be scrutinised for signs of resilience amid trade policy headwinds.
Europe: The ECB meets Thursday. After eight straight rate cuts, markets expect a pause, given inflation has now returned to the 2% target.
UK: ONS retail sales data is due, following a strong BRC print driven by warm weather and seasonal goods.
View this week's ESG in 5 for more updates here
Author.
Sources.
Market recap Data sourced from FE FundInfo & Koyfin. ETFs quoted: iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF, iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (quoted in Pounds Sterling).
News Nathan Sweeney, Marlborough, 21/07/2025
Inflation UK inflation rises to highest since January 2024, renewing focus on BoE rate cuts, By David Milliken and Suban Abdulla, Reuters, 16/07/2025
Central Banks BoE's Bailey says global cooperation is needed for financial stability, By Reuters, 14/07/2025
ESG bp Sells US Onshore Wind Business, by Mark Segal, ESG Today, 18/07/25
Geopolitics EU to ramp up retaliation plans as US tariff deal prospects dim, By Philip Blenkinsop, Yahoo Finance/Reuters, 21/07/2025
Commodities Tradingeconomics and Koyfin, 21/07/25
Week ahead Nathan Sweeney, Marlborough, 21/07/2025
