Weekly Market Review - 06-10-2025

Eloise Bell
Oct 6
3 min read

Global markets began October on a firmer footing, with equities and commodities gaining despite renewed political turbulence in Europe and ongoing geopolitical tensions. UK stocks outperformed their global peers as investors rotated toward defensives, while U.S. indices saw steady but more measured advances. Commodity markets were dominated by a record-breaking surge in gold and silver prices amid heightened safe-haven demand, offset by volatile oil trading following mixed OPEC+ signals. Meanwhile, euro-area inflation edged above target, and central banks maintained a cautious tone, balancing signs of stabilisation against lingering risks to growth and sentiment heading into the fourth quarter.

Market Recap.

UK equities led global peers, with the FTSE 100 ETF up 2.10% over the week. In the US, gains were broad but more moderate: the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF rose 1.06%, the S&P 500 ETF gained 0.85%, and the Nasdaq 100 ETF advanced 0.76%.

News.

France’s prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, resigned on Monday, 6 October — just 27 days into the job and only hours after unveiling his cabinet — deepening the country’s political crisis. The Elysée accepted his resignation after cross-party resistance made governing impossible, leaving France with the shortest-lived administration in modern times. The abrupt collapse unsettled markets, pressuring French equities and the euro intraday, and heightens uncertainty as President Emmanuel Macron weighs his options, from naming another prime minister to calling fresh parliamentary elections.

Inflation.

Euro-area inflation rose to 2.20% year over year in September, up from 2.00% in August and the highest since April. The modest re-acceleration nudges CPI just above the ECB’s 2.00% target. Price “stickiness” alongside moderating wage growth points to a less supportive backdrop for household finances, likely capping the upside for Q4 activity. Markets, therefore, still lean toward an ECB hold while watching services inflation and wage dynamics for confirmation

Central Banks.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the eurozone’s inflation outlook remains “reasonably benign,” with price pressures gradually converging toward target and neither a pronounced upside nor downside shock on the horizon. That tone points to a hold-for-longer stance while the Governing Council watches softer growth, the euro’s recent moves, and second-round effects in wages and services.

Commodities.

Gold vaulted above $3,900/oz to fresh records on 6 October as safe-haven demand swelled amid the US government shutdown and expectations of further Fed cuts. Silver also notched a 14-year high near $47.5/oz earlier in the week. Oil was choppy: after slipping when Kurdistan exports resumed and OPEC+ signalled more supply, prices rebounded as the cartel delivered a smaller-than-expected 137k b/d November hike, leaving Brent around $65–66 and WTI ~$61–62. For euro-area investors, that mix eases near-term energy-cost pressure even as precious-metal hedges stay in demand.

ESG.

The UK Government has signed off on the first HyNet carbon-capture projects — Heidelberg Materials’ Padeswood cement works (North Wales) and Encyclis’ Protos energy-from-waste plant (Ellesmere Port) — advancing them to construction after final contracts last week. From 2029, they aim to capture nearly 1.2m tCO₂e/yr, with CO₂ shipped to Liverpool Bay via the HyNet network coordinated by Eni; officials expect around 500 jobs and marks tangible progress within the £9.4bn UK CCUS programme.

Geopolitics.

US-backed ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas opened in Sharm el-Sheikh on 6 October, centred on a Washington-drafted plan that sequences a halt to fighting, hostage-prisoner exchanges, and phased Israeli withdrawals with expanded humanitarian aid. Core sticking points remain Hamas’s disarmament and the question of post-war governance in Gaza. Strikes continued even as negotiations began, underscoring high headline risk for markets. The push highlights Washington’s central diplomatic role while near-term de-escalation remains uncertain.

Week Ahead.

United States: Focus turns to hard data and Fed colour. August international trade arrives Tuesday, 7 Oct, followed by the September FOMC minutes on Wednesday, 8 Oct. Thursday brings the full August Wholesale Trade report, and Friday, 10 Oct, features the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Although some US statistics have been disrupted by the federal shutdown.

United Kingdom: Housing leads the diary. Halifax’s House Price Index is due Tuesday, 7 Oct, offering a timely read on price momentum, and the RICS House Price Balance follows mid-week (Wednesday, 8 Oct). Today’s construction PMI already set the tone with another sub-50 reading. Together, these will frame how the property market is absorbing higher rates and policy changes.

Eurozone: Sentiment and policy dominate. The Sentix investor confidence reading landed Monday, 6 Oct, and on Thursday, 9 Oct, the ECB publishes accounts of its latest policy meeting. Finance ministers meet the same day for Eurogroup, ahead of ECOFIN on Friday, 10 Oct—both gatherings that can shape fiscal guidance and market tone