Weekly Market Review - 30-06-2025
- Anthony Walters
- Jun 30
- 4 min read
Updated: Jul 1
Markets surged on news of a US-Israel-Iran ceasefire, even as US GDP revisions and sticky inflation clouded the economic picture. Oil slumped amid easing tensions, and central banks hinted at capital rule changes. Meanwhile, ESG progress continues: Microsoft inked a landmark 10-year carbon removal deal and Coldplay’s eco-ambitions hit a new high.
Market Recap.
American markets made large gains for the week, driven by several positive developments including the agreement of a ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran.
Naturally, the Nasdaq 100 ETF led the pack (3.92%), followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (3.54%) and the S&P 500 ETF (3.25%). The FTSE 100 ETF chimed in with a relatively small gain (0.56%).
News.
The US economy contracted faster than previously thought in the first quarter, amid tepid consumer spending, caused by aggressive tariffs on imported goods. Gross domestic product decreased at a downwardly revised 0.50% annualised rate last quarter, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said.
It was previously reported to have dropped at a 0.20% pace. The revision reflected a sharp downgrade to consumer spending, which is now estimated to have increased at only a 0.50% pace instead of previously reported 1.20% rate.
Inflation.
The latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed price increases accelerated in May as inflation remained above the Fed's 2.00% target. The release comes as investors have been closely watching data releases for signs of when, or if, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
The "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the central bank, rose 2.70% on an annual basis, above the 2.60% economists had expected.
Central Banks.
Large US global banks can expect as much as $6 trillion in additional balance sheet capacity and billions in freed up capital under a Federal Reserve plan to relax leverage rules, Wall Street brokerages estimated on Thursday.
The US Fed unveiled a proposal on Wednesday that would overhaul how much capital large global banks must hold against relatively low-risk assets, as part of a bid to boost participation in US Treasury markets.
Commodities.
WTI crude oil futures dropped to around $65.20 per barrel on Monday, after its sharpest weekly decline in over two years, amid easing tensions in the Middle East and the possibility that OPEC+ will further increase its oil output. Crude prices tumbled over 11% last week, its worst week since March 2023, as the US-Israel-Iran truce continues to hold.
ESG.
A new Climate and carbon removal platform Aurora Sustainable Lands have announced a new agreement with Microsoft, for the delivery of 4.8 million nature-based carbon removal credits over 10 years, generated through Improved Forest Management (IFM) on U.S forestlands.
The new agreement will help protect more than 425,000 acres of forestland, and support carbon removal efforts on projects across New York, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Florida.
Geopolitics.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held a call on Thursday in which they discussed promoting "a durable peace between Israel and Iran," the State Department said in a statement. President Trump, last week, announced a ceasefire between US ally Israel and its regional rival Iran to halt a war that began on June 13 when Israel attacked Iran.
Trump also met Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir at the White House last week where they discussed Iran, which Trump said Pakistan knew about better than most other countries.
Week Ahead.
US: Data in focus this week includes the Manufacturing PMI on Monday and Non-Manufacturing on Thursday, with the latter expected to show modest growth.
UK: The UK announces GDP on Monday, with Year-on-Year growth expected to be 1.30% compared to 1.50% prior.
EU: Inflation figures are published on Tuesday whilst the Services PMI is expected to be level at 50.0, up from 49.7 prior.
View this week's ESG in 5 for more updates here
Author.
Sources.
Market recap Data sourced from FE FundInfo & Koyfin. ETFs quoted: iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF, iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (quoted in Pounds Sterling).
News Dollar Gains as the World Awaits Iran’s Response to US Attack, by Sagarika Jaisinghani, Anya Andrianova, Macarena Muñoz and Ruth Carson, Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg, 23/06/2025
Inflation UK inflation rate holds as air fares and fuel prices decrease – but risk remains, by Karl Matchett, Yahoo Finance/Independent, 18/06/2025
Central Banks Fed holds rates steady, stays on track for 2 cuts in 2025, By Jennifer Schonberger, Yahoo Finance, 18/06/2025
ESG Nestlé’s Nescafé Significantly Beats Sustainable Coffee Farming Goal, by Mark Segal, ESG Today, 11/06/25
Geopolitics China angered by British warship sailing as Taiwan raises alert level, By Reporting by Beijing newsroom and Ben Blanchard; Additional reporting by Joe Cash in Beijing, Yahoo Finance/Reuters, 20/06/2025
Commodities Oil jumps to 5-month high after Iran votes to close Strait of Hormuz, 23/06/25
Week ahead Investing.com and Nathan Sweeney, Marlborough, 23/06/2025
