Weekly Market Review - 13-10-2025

Eloise Bell
Oct 12
3 min read

Global markets drifted lower last week as investors weighed renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China, cautious central bank messaging, and mixed macroeconomic indicators. The White House’s sweeping new tariffs on Chinese goods reignited inflation fears and dampened risk appetite, while European and UK policymakers struck a measured tone on further rate cuts. Commodities diverged sharply, with gold surging to fresh records amid safe-haven demand even as oil prices slid on softer growth expectations. Against this backdrop, attention now turns to key data releases across the U.S., UK, and Eurozone later this week for further clues on economic momentum and inflation trends.

Market Recap.

Global equities edged lower last week, with the FTSE 100 ETF down 0.47%. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF fell 0.39%, the S&P 500 ETF declined 0.27%, and the Nasdaq 100 ETF slipped 0.23%, reflecting broad but modest weakness across major indices.

News.

The White House’s decision to impose sweeping tariffs marked the most significant escalation in trade tensions since 2019. Officials justified the move as a response to Beijing’s restrictions on rare-earth exports, vital to the technology and defence sectors. The measures will effectively double levies on over $400 billion worth of Chinese goods, prompting warnings from economists of renewed inflationary pressure and slower global growth. Talks between senior US and Chinese officials are expected later this month, though expectations for a breakthrough remain low.

Inflation.

BoE officials struck a cautious tone on disinflation. On 13 Oct, MPC member Megan Greene said further rate cuts are likely but warned UK inflation may be easing more slowly than hoped, with policy still restrictive and risks tilted by recent shocks. Earlier in the week, Chief Economist Huw Pill urged a “conservative” approach to rate-setting, prioritising price stability amid data uncertainty. The latest official CPI print available is August at 3.8% y/y; September CPI is scheduled for 22 Oct (07:00 BST).

Central Banks.

ECB Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá recently stated that current euro-area rates are “appropriate,” signalling no rush for further cuts amid balanced inflation risks. He reiterated that future moves would depend on incoming data, showing the ECB’s continued cautious stance.

Meanwhile, in the past week ,the ECB held rates steady (deposit rate unchanged) despite trade and growth headwinds, emphasising that monetary policy will remain “meeting-by-meeting.”

Commodities.

Gold ripped to new records (spot high >$4,050/oz intraday Monday) as haven demand met rising Fed-cut bets; silver also printed new cycle highs. Oil slid to multi-month lows on demand fears tied to tariffs and a fading risk premium after Middle East de-escalation headlines; OPEC+ supply signals and resumed Kurdistan flows added pressure.

ESG.

The United States declined to endorse a new World Bank climate statement signed by 19 executive directors, according to ESG News. The statement called for stronger integration of climate considerations across lending and investment programmes. While the U.S.US supported the Bank’s broader development goals, it withheld backing for the declaration, citing concerns over governance and financing implications. Analysts said the move underscores Washington’s more cautious stance on multilateral climate commitments ahead of next month’s IMF–World Bank meetings.

Geopolitics.

The EU began a six-month rollout of its new Entry/Exit System (EES) on 12 Oct, introducing biometric checks for non-EU travellers at external borders and phasing out passport stamps. The move aims to curb overstays and identity fraud amid political pressure over migration. Early implementation produced queues at the Serbia–Croatia crossing, while UK departure points are starting with freight/coach traffic before broader rollout. Full electronic records are targeted by 10 Apr 2026.

Week Ahead.

United States: September Retail Sales (Thu 16 Oct) and Industrial Production (Fri 17 Oct) will provide fresh insight into consumer and manufacturing momentum.

Eurozone: Final HICP inflation data (Fri 17 Oct) will confirm whether price growth is stabilising near target.

United Kingdom: August GDP and production data (Thu 16 Oct) will round out a busy macro week in Europe.