Weekly Market Review - 30-03-2026

Mar 30
5 min read

Markets closed the week on a more cautious footing, with geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices driving increased volatility across global assets. While UK equities showed relative resilience, US markets moved lower as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation and interest rates. With oil prices climbing and uncertainty in the Middle East continuing to evolve, attention is now turning to how these developments may feed through into inflation, central bank policy and broader economic conditions in the weeks ahead.

Market Recap.

Equity markets delivered a mixed performance this week, with divergence between regions as geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices continued to influence investor sentiment.

UK equities showed relative resilience, with the FTSE 100 ETF rising 0.70%, supported by strength in energy and commodity-linked stocks amid higher oil prices.

In contrast, US markets moved lower over the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF slipped 0.88%, while the S&P 500 ETF declined 1.89%, reflecting broader weakness across the market. Technology stocks faced more pronounced pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 ETF falling 2.99%, as investors remained cautious toward growth-oriented sectors.

Overall, the week reflected a more defensive market environment, with rising geopolitical risk and renewed inflation concerns weighing on global equities.

News.

The UK government has confirmed it will not take part in direct military action in the Middle East, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer stating the conflict is “not our war.” Instead, the focus remains on diplomatic efforts and working with international partners to reduce tensions.

Officials are also closely monitoring the potential economic impact, particularly on energy markets and fuel prices, given the region’s importance to global oil supply. Discussions with G7 allies are ongoing as policymakers assess how best to support stability while protecting UK interests.

Inflation.

UK inflation remained at 3.00% in the year to February, unchanged from January, as lower fuel costs were offset by rising prices for clothing and footwear. While inflation has fallen significantly from its 2022 peak, prices are still increasing, just at a slower pace.

However, these figures were recorded before the recent escalation in the Middle East. Since then, fuel prices have risen sharply, with petrol increasing from around 131p per litre in February to nearly 150p, and diesel climbing significantly higher.

This is expected to feed through into broader costs, including energy, food and transport, potentially slowing the expected decline in inflation over the coming months.

Central Banks.

European Central Bank policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau has emphasised that it is “too early” to discuss the timing of any potential interest rate increases, highlighting a cautious approach as uncertainty remains elevated.

He noted that the ECB stands ready to act if needed but stressed that policymakers should not pre-empt decisions before clearer data emerges. His comments come as markets continue to assess the impact of rising energy prices and geopolitical developments on inflation and growth.

Overall, the message from the ECB remains one of patience and flexibility, with policymakers likely to remain data-dependent as they navigate an increasingly uncertain economic environment.

Commodities.

Once again commodity markets have remained highly volatile this week, with energy prices moving sharply higher while precious metals continue to reflect a mixed safe-haven response.

Gold is currently trading around $2,250 per ounce, while silver is near $26 per ounce, holding relatively firm as investors balance geopolitical risk with shifting interest rate expectations.

In energy markets, oil prices have surged significantly. WTI crude is now trading above $100 per barrel, while Brent crude is holding around $115, reflecting a sharp increase compared to recent weeks. The move has been driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns over potential disruption to key supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.

ESG.

A new law banning campfires and barbecues in the UK’s largest national park will come into force this week. The seasonal restriction at Cairngorms National Park will run from 1 April to 30 September. The restriction has been introduced in response to heightened wildfire risk linked to drier conditions and changing weather patterns.

This reflects a broader shift, where climate-related risks are no longer seen as distant but are influencing everyday policy decisions and land management practices. As extreme weather becomes more frequent, similar preventative measures are likely to become more common.

Geopolitics.

The conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States has entered a more serious phase, with markets increasingly focused on the risk of disruption to global energy supply.

In recent days, oil prices have risen sharply as tensions centre on the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global oil shipments. At the same time, the United States has carried out further strikes on Iranian targets, while President Donald Trump has suggested the possibility of seizing Kharg Island, a major hub for Iran’s oil exports.

The situation has also begun to feed through into the real economy. In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has confirmed the country will not be drawn into direct military involvement, while holding talks with business leaders to assess the impact on energy costs and supply chains.

Overall, the situation remains highly fluid, with markets reacting quickly to both military developments and any signs of de-escalation.

Week Ahead.

United States

In the United States, the key releases come later in the week. On Tuesday 31 March, the JOLTS job openings report is due, followed by the Employment Situation report on Friday 3 April, which includes non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and wage growth. Those will be the main numbers markets watch for signs of whether the labour market is starting to soften

United Kingdom In the UK, the focus is likely to remain on the government’s response to the Iran conflict and the impact of higher energy prices. Keir Starmer is meeting business leaders on Monday 30 March to discuss the economic fallout, while the ONS release calendar shows Quarterly sector accounts due on Tuesday 31 March. The Bank of England has no upcoming events listed for 30 March to 3 April, and its next MPC announcement is scheduled for Thursday 30 April 2026

Eurozone

Across the Eurozone, attention will stay on inflation and business activity. S&P Global’s release calendar says manufacturing PMI data are published on the first working day of the month, which puts that release on Wednesday 1 April this week. Eurostat’s release calendar also shows inflation and unemployment as key euro indicators being tracked this week, with markets watching for any renewed pressure from higher energy prices

It is important to note that the geopolitical situation remains highly fluid, and developments are changing rapidly. As such, the outlook may shift quickly as new information emerges.