Weekly Market Review - 09-02-2026

Feb 9
5 min read

Global markets delivered mixed performance over the past week as investors balanced easing inflation signals against political and geopolitical uncertainty. UK equities edged higher, supported by resilient large-cap stocks, while US markets diverged, with defensive sectors holding up better as technology shares faced renewed selling pressure. Central bank messaging remained cautious, reinforcing a data-dependent approach to future policy decisions, while developments in commodities, ESG scrutiny and geopolitics added further layers of complexity to the investment landscape. With a heavy schedule of key economic data ahead, markets remain sensitive to incoming signals on growth and inflation.

Market Recap.

UK equities posted modest gains over the week, with the FTSE 100 ETF rising 0.22%. Performance was supported by steady contributions from large-cap stocks, helping the market navigate a generally muted global environment.

US equity markets were more uneven. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF advanced 1.08%, supported by strength in more defensive areas of the market, while the S&P 500 ETF fell 1.01%. Technology stocks faced heavier selling pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 ETF declining 3.16% over the week, representing a comparatively pronounced pullback as risk appetite towards growth assets softened.

News.

UK government borrowing costs moved higher this week as investors reacted to political uncertainty around Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership following the departures of two senior aides. The yield on 10-year gilts rose modestly after Starmer’s chief of staff and communications director both resigned, prompting markets to reassess the outlook for fiscal policy and government stability. Analysts noted that if leadership change gained traction, it could lead to a loosening in fiscal discipline and put upward pressure on long-term borrowing costs and sterling.

Inflation.

Inflation remained in focus in the UK this week after the Bank of England voted narrowly to hold interest rates at 3.75%, following a closely split Monetary Policy Committee decision. While rates were left unchanged, policymakers signalled that further cuts are likely later in the year as inflation pressures continue to ease. Governor Andrew Bailey said CPI inflation is expected to fall back to the Bank’s 2.00% target by the spring, supported in part by policy measures such as lower household energy costs.

Alongside the decision, the Bank downgraded its outlook for UK economic growth and raised its forecast for unemployment, reinforcing expectations that the current restrictive stance may be eased further. Markets interpreted the Bank’s guidance as increasing the likelihood of rate cuts in coming meetings, with attention now focused on incoming inflation and labour-market data to confirm that price pressures are on a sustainable downward path.

As a result, markets remain sensitive to incoming inflation data, with the upcoming CPI release expected to play an important role in shaping near-term expectations for US monetary policy.

Central Banks.

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at its February meeting, maintaining its current policy stance. The Governing Council said incoming data continue to support the view that inflation is easing towards the ECB’s 2.00% target over the medium term, while acknowledging that uncertainty around the outlook remains elevated.

ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that policy decisions will continue to be taken on a “data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting basis”, stressing that the Governing Council is not pre-committing to a specific rate path. She noted that the current stance remains appropriate given prevailing inflation dynamics.

Overall, the press conference reinforced the ECB’s cautious approach, with policymakers signalling a steady hand and flexibility to respond to future data rather than providing guidance on the timing of any policy changes.

Commodities.

Commodity markets were mixed over the past week, with differing trends across metals and energy. Precious metals showed ongoing volatility but held above recent lows. Gold futures were trading near the mid-$5,000s per ounce and silver around $80 per ounce, with both markets reflecting continued price swings after earlier sharp moves. Metals prices have stabilised somewhat following significant retracements from record levels seen earlier in the year. In energy markets, crude oil prices remained relatively steady. WTI crude was around $63–$64 per barrel and Brent crude near $68 per barrel over the week, as broader supply and demand dynamics continued to influence price action without major directional shifts. Overall, commodities delivered a mixed performance, with metals experiencing volatility and energy markets showing modest stability.

ESG.

Shareholder scrutiny of bank climate commitments intensified this week as responsible-investment campaigners warned that chairs of major lenders could face opposition at upcoming annual meetings if they are seen to have weakened environmental goals. A report from ShareAction assessing climate policy changes at 34 global banks is due to be circulated to pension funds and asset managers, with the group urging investors to consider voting against the re-election of any chair who has overseen a rollback in commitments. ShareAction’s senior campaign manager said that while removal of directors is unlikely, even a modest reduction in support “can send quite a strong signal” and help “slow down this trend of [climate] backtracking

Geopolitics.

Geopolitical tensions between Russia and NATO-aligned countries intensified this week after Russian authorities claimed that Polish intelligence was involved in recruiting an individual linked to a failed assassination attempt on a senior Russian military figure. The allegations, which have not been independently verified, were rejected by Poland and come amid heightened rhetoric and information warfare surrounding the conflict in Ukraine. The episode underscores the fragile state of relations between Russia and Western governments and highlights the ongoing risk of escalation through diplomatic and intelligence channels, even as the conflict remains largely contained to Ukraine. Markets continue to monitor developments closely for signs of broader geopolitical spillover.

Week Ahead.

United States: In the United States, markets face an unusually heavy and compressed run of key economic data following earlier delays. The week is dominated by a closely watched combination of labour-market and inflation releases, with the January non-farm payrolls report due on Wednesday, 11 February, followed shortly by January consumer price inflation data on Friday, 13 February. The proximity of these two releases is expected to be a key driver of market volatility, as investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy. In addition, December retail sales figures, scheduled for Tuesday, 10 February, will provide an important update on consumer demand, while a busy earnings calendar from several large US corporates may also influence sentiment alongside the macro data.

Eurozone: Across the Eurozone, inflation and activity indicators will be in focus. Earlier data showed Eurozone inflation falling below target levels in January, which may continue to influence market views on ECB policy, even as the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. This week, flash February inflation indicators and follow-on activity data will provide updated signals on price pressures and demand conditions across the bloc.

United Kingdom: In the UK, the data calendar remains relatively light but still important for market expectations. Attention will be on preliminary Q4 GDP figures and UK industrial and manufacturing production data mid-week, which will help gauge the underlying strength of the economy. These releases come shortly after the Bank of England’s February policy decision to hold the base rate at 3.75%, where the vote was closely split and signalled the potential for future easing later in the year.