Macro Note: Tariff Turbulence Turns Tranquil
- Anthony Walters
- Oct 12
- 2 min read
Recent developments in US-China trade relations introduced brief uncertainty into global markets. A series of policy announcements and diplomatic signals have prompted short-term volatility but also opened the door to potential dialogue.
Timeline of Events.
Market Reaction.
The initial announcement triggered a broad risk-off move, with equities and cyclical sectors under pressure. However, the weekend’s more conciliatory messaging from both sides helped stabilise sentiment, leading to a constructive start to the week for markets.
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Key Takeaways.
Policy risk remains elevated, but recent signals suggest both sides are open to dialogue.
Market volatility is likely to persist in the short term, especially ahead of the APEC Summit later this month.
Opportunities may emerge if tensions ease, particularly in oversold sectors and global cyclical stocks.
Looking Ahead.
We continue to monitor developments closely, with particular attention to:
Any further policy announcements from Washington or Beijing.
Signals around a potential Trump-Xi meeting at APEC.
Market positioning and sentiment shifts in response to trade headlines.
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