Macro Note: Tariff Turbulence Turns Tranquil
- Anthony Walters
- Oct 12
- 2 min read
Recent developments in US-China trade relations introduced brief uncertainty into global markets. A series of policy announcements and diplomatic signals have prompted short-term volatility but also opened the door to potential dialogue.
Timeline of Events.
Date | Event |
Thu 9 Oct | China announces export controls on rare earth minerals |
Fri 10 Oct | In response, President Trump announces a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, effective 1 November. |
Fri 10 Oct (PM) | Markets sell off sharply: S&P 500 -2.70%, Nasdaq -3.60% |
Sat 11 Oct | Trump posts on Truth Social, softening his tone: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!” |
Sun 12 Oct | China clarifies its rare earth curbs are not a full export ban, suggesting civilian-use exports may still be approved. |
Mon 13 Oct (Overnight) | US futures rebound: S&P +1.20%, Nasdaq +1.60%, supported by President’s Trump and Xi’s de-escalation efforts and potential dialogue at the upcoming APEC (Asia Pacific Economic) Summit. |
Market Reaction.
The initial announcement triggered a broad risk-off move, with equities and cyclical sectors under pressure. However, the weekend’s more conciliatory messaging from both sides helped stabilise sentiment, leading to a constructive start to the week for markets.
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Key Takeaways.
Policy risk remains elevated, but recent signals suggest both sides are open to dialogue.
Market volatility is likely to persist in the short term, especially ahead of the APEC Summit later this month.
Opportunities may emerge if tensions ease, particularly in oversold sectors and global cyclical stocks.
Looking Ahead.
We continue to monitor developments closely, with particular attention to:
Any further policy announcements from Washington or Beijing.
Signals around a potential Trump-Xi meeting at APEC.
Market positioning and sentiment shifts in response to trade headlines.
Sources
China outlines more controls on exports of rare earths and technology | Associated Press | MSN Business News | 09/10/25 |
US Will Impose Additional 100% Tariff on Chinese Imports from November, Trump Says (Reuters via US News) | Bhargav Acharya, Jasper Ward, Ismail Shakil | US News / Reuters | 10/10/2025 |
Trump adds 100% tariff on China, critical software export controls (CNBC) | Dan Mangan | CNBC | 10/10/2025 |
U.S. stock markets tumble after Trump says he's raising China tariffs to 100% (CBC/Reuters) | Jeenah Moon | CBC / Reuters | 10/10/2025 |
Stocks slump after Trump threatens to hit China with more tariffs (CBS News) | Joe Walsh | CBS News | 10/10/2025 |
Trump, Vance Open Door to China Deal as Trade Spat Drags On (Bloomberg via MSN) | Bloomberg News | MSN / Bloomberg | 13/10/2025 |
Trump, China play blame game amid rising trade tensions (USA Today) | Karissa Waddick | USA Today | 12/10/2025 |
U.S. Stock Futures Rebound as Trump Calms China Trade Tensions (EconoTimes) | Luis Villa del Campo | EconoTimes | 13/10/2025 |
Stock market today: Live updates (CNBC) | Sarah Min | CNBC | 12/10/2025 |
