Weekly Market Review - 15-12-2025

Eloise Bell
Dec 15, 2025
5 min read

Global markets were mixed over the week as investors navigated a complex backdrop of central-bank divergence, shifting interest-rate expectations and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. While US equities showed resilience, weakness in technology stocks and ongoing inflation concerns kept sentiment cautious as attention turns to key economic data and policy signals heading into the final weeks of the year.

Market Recap.

Equity markets delivered a mixed performance over the week. The FTSE 100 ETF was broadly flat, edging up 0.01% as gains in defensive sectors offset weakness elsewhere. In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF rose 1.06%, supported by resilience in industrials and financials. By contrast, technology-heavy indices came under pressure: the S&P 500 ETF slipped 0.77%, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF fell 2.09% as investors rotated away from growth stocks amid renewed interest-rate uncertainty.

News.

UK house prices remained under pressure as expectations around interest-rate cuts were pushed further out. Data showed that elevated borrowing costs continue to weigh on buyer affordability, particularly in higher-priced regions, despite some improvement in market sentiment. While the Bank of England is still expected to ease policy next year, policymakers have signalled caution, emphasising the need for clearer evidence that inflation pressures are firmly under control before cutting rates. The outlook suggests housing activity is likely to remain subdued into early 2026.

Inflation.

Federal Reserve policymaker Austan Goolsbee drew attention this week after revealing he dissented against the Fed’s recent quarter-point rate cut, arguing that waiting for additional inflation and labour-market data would have posed little risk. Goolsbee noted that inflation progress has stalled in recent months and that businesses and consumers continue to cite price pressures as a key concern. He emphasised that the labour market is only “moderately cooling” and suggested policymakers could have waited until early next year for more comprehensive data. Despite his dissent, Goolsbee said he remains optimistic that rates could still fall meaningfully in 2026 if inflation resumes its path toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Central Banks.

Markets are increasingly focused on central bank divergence as a key theme this week. With the Federal Reserve trimming interest rates, options traders and currency strategists are betting the euro’s rally will continue if the European Central Bank (ECB) emphasises a widening policy gap with the Fed, potentially keeping its own policy more restrictive for longer. This dynamic has already seen the euro trade near multi-month highs against the dollar ahead of the ECB’s December policy meeting, highlighting how relative monetary policy expectations are driving FX and risk asset flows in global markets.

Commodities.

Commodities delivered a mixed but relatively stable performance over the period. Gold moved higher, trading near US $4,228/oz, supported by a softer US dollar and continued demand for defensive assets amid policy uncertainty. Silver also strengthened, ending the week close to US $49.60/oz as investors maintained exposure to precious metals. In energy markets, oil prices edged modestly higher, with Brent crude rising to around US $63.70/barrel and WTI nearing US $59.80/barrel, reflecting signs of supply discipline from OPEC+ alongside tentative stabilisation in global demand. Overall, precious metals continue to benefit from risk-off sentiment, while crude remains constrained by uneven economic conditions.

ESG.

In European sustainability policy, lawmakers in the European Parliament and Council reached a provisional agreement to reduce the scope and reporting burden of key ESG regulations. The deal will sharply cut the number of companies required to comply with the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), raising thresholds and eliminating some reporting requirements such as mandatory climate transition plans. Proponents say these changes simplify the regulatory landscape and boost business competitiveness, while critics warn the rollbacks could undermine broader sustainability goals by weakening transparency on environmental and social impacts.

Geopolitics.

Geopolitical developments continue to shape market sentiment as peace talks aimed at ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enter a critical phase. Negotiations in Berlin brought U.S., Ukrainian and European leaders together, with Ukraine signalling a willingness to drop its long-standing goal of joining NATO in exchange for strong security guarantees from Western allies — a major shift in strategy and a key point in talks designed to secure a peace settlement. Leaders also discussed potential frameworks for a demilitarised zone in the contested Donbas region as part of broader peace proposals, although significant hurdles remain around territorial control and security assurances. Meanwhile, European leaders are expected to cement support for Ukraine amid U.S. pressure to accept a peace deal, highlighting the complex diplomatic balancing act that could have implications for defence spending, alliance unity and regional stability.

Week Ahead.

United States: In the United States, the week begins on Tuesday, 16 December, with the release of November housing starts and building permits, offering insight into housing-market momentum amid still-restrictive borrowing costs. Attention then turns to the labour market on Thursday, 18 December, when the latest initial jobless-claims data are published, providing an updated read on whether employment conditions continue to cool gradually. The key release arrives on Friday, 19 December, with November’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, which will be closely scrutinised for confirmation that disinflation remains on track following the December policy decision.

Eurozone: Across the Eurozone, attention is anchored on inflation and confidence indicators. Final November HICP inflation data, due on Wednesday, 17 December, will confirm earlier estimates and help shape expectations for the European Central Bank’s next policy steps. The week concludes on Friday, 19 December, with the release of consumer and business confidence surveys, which will be monitored for signs of stabilisation following a subdued second half of 2025.

United Kingdom: In the UK, the focus centres on inflation midweek. Wednesday, 17 December, brings the release of November CPI figures, a critical update for the Bank of England’s policy outlook as markets assess the persistence of services inflation and underlying price pressures. Later in the week, Friday, 19 December, sees the publication of November retail-sales data, offering insight into consumer resilience as households navigate higher interest rates heading into the final weeks of the year.